Kenya has warned that the country was likely to be affected by El Nino rains during the October-December season and the early months of 2024, with most areas expecting to receive heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.
David Gikungu, director of meteorological services at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said in an update that their model predictions and expert assessment had shown that there will be above-average rainfall during the season.
“There is a very high likelihood (approximately 90 percent chance) of El Nino to prevail during the remaining part of the year and extend into early 2024,” Gikungu said.
He noted that El Nino is often associated with heavy rains and floods during the October-December season, especially in East Africa, adding that the recent drought that affected Kenya is now over and would pave the way for El Nino due to “the tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies”.
According to him, El Nino effects are more pronounced during the period and are associated with above average rainfall over Kenya.
However, the outcome of the rainfall is determined by the strength of the El Nino and other drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon that causes heavy rains, as well as local factors.
Kenya experienced its worst El Nino rains in 1997 and recently, the country grappled with the most severe drought since the 1950s.
The expected heavy rains and the drought, which also affected Ethiopia and Somalia in the Horn of Africa, left millions facing starvation and death.
